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Cardassia could not win a war against the Federation.
I've heard that said a lot, often as the prelude to some rant about how Starfleet should have been harder in negotiations with the Cardassian Union. While it is certainly true that Cardassia could not win a total war against the Federation, it is reductive to say that they cannot beat the Federation. As, in a manner of speaking, they already have.
Oh, and as an aside, I'm using this map as the generally accepted borders between the Federation and Cardassian Union. They're similar to what is shown on screen and most licensed material uses them.
Oh, and as an aside, I'm using this map as the generally accepted borders between the Federation and Cardassian Union. They're similar to what is shown on screen and most licensed material uses them.
The Cardassian-Federation Border Wars
From 2347 until 2370, Cardassia and the UFP engaged in a number of border wars. These conflicts can be seen as separate and yet part of 1, larger war. The exact details of these conflicts are very hazy, however we do know a few things.
-The Cardassian Union suffered great resource exhaustion during the war. This seems to have been largely caused by a state of total economic mobilisation (a decision that no doubt worsened conditions on Bajor).
-Many of the battles of the war were ground engagements, fought over outposts and civilian population centres.
-The Federation maintained a technological advantage over the Cardassian Union throughout the war(s).
-There were several temporary truces.
-Casualties were high on both sides.
.-The Federation saw Cardassian tactics and the treatment of prisoners as barbaric and cruel.
By all appearances, the Cardassians started the war in the Setlik system, preemptively striking the colony in an attempt to destroy a supposed weapons cache. From there, it was grinding war of attrition that would eventually end in 2367, with an Armistice, but would not be concluded until the treaty of 2370. Within that 3 year gap, both sides would come to the brink of another war no less than 3 times. At least 1 of these occasions was a pre-meditated effort by the Cardassian Union to invade Minos Korva.
This information doesn't fill out a lot of the reasons for the war, but we can assume, from the later creation of the demilitarised zone, that it was a conflict that sprang from a need for territory and resources. Cardassia is famously resource poor and much of their territorial expansion has reflected that. They annexed Bajor to strip mine it. It's not that big a leap to assume that they colonised close to Federation space for the same reason.
We also have the way that the conflict is discussed to consider. In "Ensign Ro", Admiral Kennelly refers to the conflict as "the Cardassian Border Wars". In "The Wounded" they mention fighting along the Cardassian Border. This conflict has largely been contained to the border, then. And that is an important piece of information. When we combine it with the absence of any evidence that Starfleet took aggressive, retaliatory action against the Cardassian Union, we can say with fair confidence that this was a limited war.
-The Cardassian Union suffered great resource exhaustion during the war. This seems to have been largely caused by a state of total economic mobilisation (a decision that no doubt worsened conditions on Bajor).
-Many of the battles of the war were ground engagements, fought over outposts and civilian population centres.
-The Federation maintained a technological advantage over the Cardassian Union throughout the war(s).
-There were several temporary truces.
-Casualties were high on both sides.
.-The Federation saw Cardassian tactics and the treatment of prisoners as barbaric and cruel.
By all appearances, the Cardassians started the war in the Setlik system, preemptively striking the colony in an attempt to destroy a supposed weapons cache. From there, it was grinding war of attrition that would eventually end in 2367, with an Armistice, but would not be concluded until the treaty of 2370. Within that 3 year gap, both sides would come to the brink of another war no less than 3 times. At least 1 of these occasions was a pre-meditated effort by the Cardassian Union to invade Minos Korva.
This information doesn't fill out a lot of the reasons for the war, but we can assume, from the later creation of the demilitarised zone, that it was a conflict that sprang from a need for territory and resources. Cardassia is famously resource poor and much of their territorial expansion has reflected that. They annexed Bajor to strip mine it. It's not that big a leap to assume that they colonised close to Federation space for the same reason.
We also have the way that the conflict is discussed to consider. In "Ensign Ro", Admiral Kennelly refers to the conflict as "the Cardassian Border Wars". In "The Wounded" they mention fighting along the Cardassian Border. This conflict has largely been contained to the border, then. And that is an important piece of information. When we combine it with the absence of any evidence that Starfleet took aggressive, retaliatory action against the Cardassian Union, we can say with fair confidence that this was a limited war.
Limited War and Total War
A misconception of wars is that they must be absolute. This is reinforced in the real world by many of the most "popular" wars in history being total wars. 2 of the wars we see on screen in DS9 are also total wars. (The Dominion War and the Klingon invasion of Cardassia.) However there is a much more common form of war. Limited war is a set of circumstances where, while both nations are in conflict, they largely isolate the zone of engagement to the territory in dispute. Fighting outside of this region can escalate the conflict in a way that neither party wants. It can even lead to total war.
The Federation doesn't want to escalate the war because the Federation's general policy is to seek peace where possible. Not to mention they have a lot of other potential enemies on their border. By committing to a total war against Cardassia, they would likely leave their other borders weakened and tempting targets to opportunists.
The Cardassians don't want to escalate the war because they are aware that the Federation would beat them in a larger engagement. They don't have the resources or the tech to meaningfully breach into Federation space and occupy it.
However, both sides know what the other knows. And from here, we can start to see how Cardassia "wins" the border war.
The Federation doesn't want to escalate the war because the Federation's general policy is to seek peace where possible. Not to mention they have a lot of other potential enemies on their border. By committing to a total war against Cardassia, they would likely leave their other borders weakened and tempting targets to opportunists.
The Cardassians don't want to escalate the war because they are aware that the Federation would beat them in a larger engagement. They don't have the resources or the tech to meaningfully breach into Federation space and occupy it.
However, both sides know what the other knows. And from here, we can start to see how Cardassia "wins" the border war.
The Treaty
The Cardassians' war goals are tangible assets. Poorly defended Federation colonies on the edge of Federation space. Worlds that already abut their own territory. Cardassia has the infrastructure in place to support fleets in this region of space. If they are persistent and strike at the opportune time, they can take these worlds.
The Federation's war goal is to end the war and restore pre-war borders, as tends to be the case. They can't justify deploying a larger portion of Starfleet to the Cardassian front unless things escalate.
In the end, with some unforeseeable circumstances forcing the Federation's hand, the Cardassians get their border concessions. The formerly unpalatable price of peace, some colonies along the Cardassian border, has finally become more palatable than more war. This will become a a signature negotiating style of the Cardassian Union in the next years.
The Federation's war goal is to end the war and restore pre-war borders, as tends to be the case. They can't justify deploying a larger portion of Starfleet to the Cardassian front unless things escalate.
In the end, with some unforeseeable circumstances forcing the Federation's hand, the Cardassians get their border concessions. The formerly unpalatable price of peace, some colonies along the Cardassian border, has finally become more palatable than more war. This will become a a signature negotiating style of the Cardassian Union in the next years.
Bajor and the DMZ
As with most things relating to Cardassians, victory is short lived and the reality of new treaty is less than what the Cardassians have bargained for. They have their resource rich colonies, but they're still inhabited by Federation species. The Cardassians anticipated that Starfleet would evacuate their civilians from the colonies, as agreed.
Instead, the Cardassians find themselves with few million angry colonists in a region of space that, by treaty stipulation, the Cardassians can't militarise. Under other circumstances, the Cardassians might park a fleet of ships around those colonies and neutralise any signs of resistance.
Worse, the Cardassians are forced to abandon Bajor after decades of brutal occupation and terrorism. Starfleet have set up shop and in less than a month after their withdrawal, discovers the wormhole, suddenly making Bajor dozens of times more valuable than it had been.
On paper this is all a huge reversal, and it surely is, however the Cardassians are also presented with a huge opportunity.
Instead, the Cardassians find themselves with few million angry colonists in a region of space that, by treaty stipulation, the Cardassians can't militarise. Under other circumstances, the Cardassians might park a fleet of ships around those colonies and neutralise any signs of resistance.
Worse, the Cardassians are forced to abandon Bajor after decades of brutal occupation and terrorism. Starfleet have set up shop and in less than a month after their withdrawal, discovers the wormhole, suddenly making Bajor dozens of times more valuable than it had been.
On paper this is all a huge reversal, and it surely is, however the Cardassians are also presented with a huge opportunity.
The Realpolitik of the Cardassian Border
Cardassia wants the wormhole, same as everyone else. They are singular in their capacity to take it, though. Until later events turn everything around, Bajor is an extremely isolated system well beyond the borders of the Federation. It's also very close to Cardassia itself. The only Federation presence in the system is a crew of a few hundred Starfleet personnel on a dingy, beat up refinery station. Starfleet does send ships through the Bajor system regularly, but they don't have a fleet there.
Of course, if the Cardassians can win back Bajor without fighting the Federation, then all the better. They almost succeed in secretly backing a Bajoran isolationist movement's attempts to overthrow the government and remove the Starfleet presence on DS9. The plan ultimately fails but all that's really cost the Cardassians are the weapons they supplied.
All the same, with the sudden rise of the Maquis and True Way, the DMZ is now a potential warzone. Either side could realistically intervene there under the pretense of "restoring order". But it would almost assuredly mean war.
This is potentially in Cardassia's interest. If there is another border war, Starfleet's main fleets are well away from Bajor, patrolling their side of the Cardassian-Federation border. Any meaningful response from Starfleet to a massed invasion of Bajor will take weeks if not months. DS9 is not, as of yet, refitted with proper defensive systems, it's days away from the nearest Starbase and can only call on ships in the immediate area for assistance. Once Cardassian forces have control of the system, they can entrench and weather the Starfleet counter attack. In due course, the Cardassians may well win themselves a new, more favourable peace.
Of course, they didn't do that in the end. Too many "ifs". Too great a possibility that Starfleet would be willing to fight an escalating war to secure the wormhole. Here, again, we see what happens when both sides know how the other will react. Cardassia knows that Starfleet wants to secure the wormhole and avoid another war, so they push the line. They get away with things that would otherwise kill the peace. Arming their own colonists in the DMZ, forging evidence against Starfleet personnel and even directly sabotaging Starfleet property.
The Federation knows that Cardassia will use the DMZ as an excuse for another conflict so they take a much more involved approach to dealing with the Maquis. But they also know that the Cardassians won't risk a total war, so they get away with their own list of things that would usually mean war. Sneaking into Cardassian space numerous times, arresting Cardassian citizens and aiding dissidents.
In the end, neither side is willing to start a war because they both have a lot to lose if they fuck up. Not so for the Klingons, when they eventually show up.
Of course, if the Cardassians can win back Bajor without fighting the Federation, then all the better. They almost succeed in secretly backing a Bajoran isolationist movement's attempts to overthrow the government and remove the Starfleet presence on DS9. The plan ultimately fails but all that's really cost the Cardassians are the weapons they supplied.
All the same, with the sudden rise of the Maquis and True Way, the DMZ is now a potential warzone. Either side could realistically intervene there under the pretense of "restoring order". But it would almost assuredly mean war.
This is potentially in Cardassia's interest. If there is another border war, Starfleet's main fleets are well away from Bajor, patrolling their side of the Cardassian-Federation border. Any meaningful response from Starfleet to a massed invasion of Bajor will take weeks if not months. DS9 is not, as of yet, refitted with proper defensive systems, it's days away from the nearest Starbase and can only call on ships in the immediate area for assistance. Once Cardassian forces have control of the system, they can entrench and weather the Starfleet counter attack. In due course, the Cardassians may well win themselves a new, more favourable peace.
Of course, they didn't do that in the end. Too many "ifs". Too great a possibility that Starfleet would be willing to fight an escalating war to secure the wormhole. Here, again, we see what happens when both sides know how the other will react. Cardassia knows that Starfleet wants to secure the wormhole and avoid another war, so they push the line. They get away with things that would otherwise kill the peace. Arming their own colonists in the DMZ, forging evidence against Starfleet personnel and even directly sabotaging Starfleet property.
The Federation knows that Cardassia will use the DMZ as an excuse for another conflict so they take a much more involved approach to dealing with the Maquis. But they also know that the Cardassians won't risk a total war, so they get away with their own list of things that would usually mean war. Sneaking into Cardassian space numerous times, arresting Cardassian citizens and aiding dissidents.
In the end, neither side is willing to start a war because they both have a lot to lose if they fuck up. Not so for the Klingons, when they eventually show up.